ADA keeps bouncing off its 200-day. I sell the lower high

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ADA keeps bouncing off its 200-day. I sell the lower high​

ADAUSDT Perpetual Contract BYBIT:ADAUSDT.P
NorthEdgeOfficial

X keeps saying ADA bounces off its 200-day, and it does: 0.2114, no daily close under it this month. But every bounce is weaker. The highs go 0.2826 (6 Oct), 0.2594, 0.2334, 0.2304 (21 Oct) and the lows go 0.2156, 0.2108, 0.2091. ADA is under its 4H 200 average (0.2313) and the daily 50 (0.2277), and BTC's 4H is under its own.

The news today is a request for 22M ADA from the Cardano treasury to buy copper, vote closes 15 Nov. I do not trade that, the chart is the news. The 21 Oct high of 0.2304 stopped right under the 4H 200 average, and the 23.6% retrace of the 6 to 22 Oct drop (0.2264) lands inside the same zone.

Entry: a 4H candle that wicks into 0.2250 to 0.2300 and closes back down
Targets: 0.2100 / 0.1950
Wrong: 4H close over 0.2335
Skip it if a 4H candle closes under 0.2090 first.

Stop about 2.5%, TP1 about 8%, TP2 about 14%. Weak point: the 200-day was bought on 18 and 22 Oct, and one more bounce there hurts this idea. BTC is mixed too (4H under its 200, daily over its 50). If ADA never bounces I do nothing. Which do you trust more, the floor or the lower highs?